The future of artificial intelligence in the banking industry in the horizon of 2030 (A case study of one of Iran's state banks)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Future Studies, Ivanki University, Ivanki, Iran.

2 Department of Future Studies, Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract
Purpose: The rapid pace of technological change has led to greater use of artificial intelligence and prompted various industries to pay special attention to this emerging phenomenon to advance their goals, improve quality, and reduce costs. The banking industry is working to improve service quality and enhance customer satisfaction by leveraging artificial intelligence alongside other industries. This research presents an overview of the applications, current situation, and future scenarios of using artificial intelligence in the banking industry of Iran in the horizon of 2030.
Methodology: First, by conducting library studies on the application of artificial intelligence in statistical banking, and in the next step, by using the targeting method, 24 experienced banking experts were selected and, through unstructured (in-depth) interviews, and by using the Max Quda software, the current state of the application of sample intelligence was assessed. Artificial intelligence in banking was identified and analyzed, and, based on expert opinion and the GBN method, future scenarios for its application in the banking industry were drawn for the horizon of 2030.
Findings: According to the findings, currently, three processes: security and fraud prevention, credit risk, and identification of money laundering and terrorism financing activities are making use of artificial intelligence, and are most used in the field of security and fraud prevention. Also, based on the two main uncertainties, the international activity of the bank and the support of senior managers, four scenarios of authoritative influence, forced success, growth in confinement, and silent death were written as future scenarios of the application of artificial intelligence in the banking industry in the horizon of 2030.
Originality/Value: In this research, while identifying the application of artificial intelligence in the banking industry, the current state of its application was investigated, and the future of its application in Iran's banking industry was outlined for the horizon of 2030.

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