ارایه راهکار عملی تعامل دولت و بانک مرکزی در حل بحران بدهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مدیر گروه تلفیق، سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان مازندران.

2 گروه ریاضی، دانشکده آمار، ریاضی و علوم کامپیوتر، سمنان، ایران.

3 پژوهشکده پولی و بانکی، بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، تهران، ایران.

10.22105/fbs.2026.252306
چکیده
هدف: هدف این مقاله بررسی تعامل دولت و بانک مرکزی در تثبیت بدهی عمومی با استفاده از بازی دیفرانسیلی غیرهمکارانه است؛ به‌گونه‌ای که مخارج دولت و درآمدهای مالیاتی هم به‌صورت مستقل و هم به‌صورت متغیرهای مالی وابسته مدل‌سازی می‌شوند.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: یک بازی دیفرانسیلی غیرهمکارانه با اطلاعات حلقه باز، بر اساس چارچوب توسعه‌یافته تابلینی تدوین شد. دو ساختار سیاست مالی مدل‌سازی و نتایج تعادلی آنها با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی عددی و با کالیبراسیون برای اقتصاد ایران ارزیابی شدند.
یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که مدل‌سازی مخارج دولت و درآمدهای مالیاتی به‌صورت وابسته، بدهی عمومی تعادلی را از ۰٫۱۷۳ به ۰٫۱۶۰، پایه پولی را از ۰٫۰۷۵ به ۰٫۰۶۲ و کسری مالی را از ۰٫۰۸۰ به ۰٫۰۶۷ کاهش می‌دهد. نرخ همگرایی در ساختار وابسته ۰٫۳۰۷ و در ساختار مستقل ۰٫۳۷۸ است.
اصالت/ارزش افزوده علمی: اصالت این مقاله در تفکیک مخارج دولت و درآمدهای مالیاتی به‌عنوان متغیرهای کنترلی مستقل و مقایسه آن با ساختار وابسته کسری مالی در چارچوب بازی دیفرانسیلی است. یافته‌ها اهمیت طراحی هماهنگ سیاست مالی برای ثبات بدهی عمومی را نشان می‌دهند

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله English

Practical strategies for government–central bank cooperation in resolving debt crises

نویسندگان English

Behzad Shahbai 1
Alireza Bahiraei 2
Ali Arshadi 3
1 Head of the Integration Group, Mazandaran Province Management and Planning Organization.
2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Statistics, Mathematics and Computer Science, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
3 Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
چکیده English

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the interaction between the government and the central bank in stabilizing public debt using a non-cooperative differential game, with government expenditure and tax revenue modeled both independently and as interdependent fiscal variables.
Methodology: A non-cooperative open-loop differential game is developed based on an extended Tabellini framework. Two fiscal-policy structures are modeled and their equilibrium outcomes are evaluated through numerical simulation calibrated for the Iranian economy.
Findings: The results show that modeling government expenditure and tax revenue as interdependent variables reduces the equilibrium public debt from 0.173 to 0.160, the monetary base from 0.075 to 0.062, and the fiscal deficit from 0.080 to 0.067. The convergence rate is 0.307 in the interdependent structure, compared with 0.378 when the fiscal variables are modeled independently.
Originality/Value: The originality of this paper lies in separating government expenditure and tax revenue as independent control variables and comparing this structure with an interdependent fiscal-deficit formulation within a differential-game framework. The findings highlight the importance of coordinated fiscal-policy design for public debt stability.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Central bank
Differential game
Fiscal deficit
Public debt
Tax revenue
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دوره 4، شماره 1
بهار 1405
صفحه 109-130